Forest

Chan Island wrote:

Lula da Silva winning in Brazil...

Maybe I'm just ignorant of South American politics (likely), but Brazil always seems like it can truly go in any direction at any time, and I'm actually surprised there wasn't more foreign influence trying to prevent Lula from winning. The Alberta Referendum was an overwhelming "don't become a U.S. proxy/petro-state" so I'm willing to call that a win even if the rest of the results were a mixed bag, and even if that limits how much worse the environment gets rather than fixing it.

So in my mind, there's two ways to look at the U.S. midterms. Either we get rule-of-three'd, and the U.S. stops stabbing itself repeatedly as much, or we have a Newton's Third moment in politics, and the world has to balance itself out. I want to be hopeful based off of polling, but I'd rather expect the worst at this point.

Canaltia wrote:

I'm really considering pulling an all-nighter ... we'll have to see closer to the event.

Our friendly neighbourhood SAAB 340 decided to have a fuel leak, so I'm working between 2-16 hours this weekend, and on call for the whole thing. Definitely not going to pull an all-nighter for Z-Day, unfortunately, but if it goes poorly, we can blame Swedish engineering.

Aadonatins wrote:

Pope is pop!!!!!!

Pope is Pop_OS!

Pope use Linux!

Holy Linux Empire for the all tomorrow...

"O Papa é pop, o pop não poupa ninguém"

RMB post written from a Pop_OS! 24 computer (still GNOME tho)

Canaltia wrote:

snip

South American politics go through intense cycles generally. I just came from Colombia and their political history is legitimately fascinating and terrifying.

Canaltia wrote:

Maybe I'm just ignorant of South American politics (likely), but Brazil always seems like it can truly go in any direction at any time, and I'm actually surprised there wasn't more foreign influence trying to prevent Lula from winning. The Alberta Referendum was an overwhelming "don't become a U.S. proxy/petro-state" so I'm willing to call that a win even if the rest of the results were a mixed bag, and even if that limits how much worse the environment gets rather than fixing it.

So in my mind, there's two ways to look at the U.S. midterms. Either we get rule-of-three'd, and the U.S. stops stabbing itself repeatedly as much, or we have a Newton's Third moment in politics, and the world has to balance itself out. I want to be hopeful based off of polling, but I'd rather expect the worst at this point.

Our friendly neighbourhood SAAB 340 decided to have a fuel leak, so I'm working between 2-16 hours this weekend, and on call for the whole thing. Definitely not going to pull an all-nighter for Z-Day, unfortunately, but if it goes poorly, we can blame Swedish engineering.

You're not wrong.

I think the foreign influences dealt with 3 things at once this time: 1) complacency. They thought that just because Bolsonaro had the most votes in the first round that that would necessarily transfer to the second. They were not wrong to think that either: this time is the first time in Brazilian history that that pattern has been upset.
2) They got a backlash. Facebook's interferences were apparently so blatant during the first round that even the normies took notice. Interfering in a foreign election runs the risk of tipping people off, and once that happens it can be very difficult for your preferred candidate to win. This was a case in point.
3) Lula's Effectiveness. Interfering in an election takes allies, you need patsies in that country in positions of power to help you. This election saw some of that- there were reports of pro-Bolsonaro mayors deliberately cancelling busses on voting day, for example. That's the rub though- mayors. That was the extent of who they had. Because Jair Bolsonaro is in prison. The people that helped him stage his version of Jan 6th are also in prison. Lula da Silva took power and used the might of the state to crack down on the people that would have worked with foreign powers seeking to undermine the election. Then after that there is a basic question of incentives: what is the incentive to take US cash and work against the democracy if you are likely to be rewarded with lengthy prison sentences?
A lesson the western democracies would do well to learn themselves, to be honest. Donald Trump walking free after staging Jan 6th was a catastrophic show of weakness by Merrick Garland and the democrats. The fact that Marine le Pen gets to walk consequence-free after multiple credible reports of taking bribes from Russia, an open declared enemy of France, is a travesty. I am not confident that the Democrats have actually learned that lesson though, and fear that even an overwhelming victory for them in the midterms will mean nothing as a result.

Safiloa wrote:

South American politics go through intense cycles generally. I just came from Colombia and their political history is legitimately fascinating and terrifying.

In geopolitics they often talk about the concept of geographic armour- things like a mountain range, wide rivers, the sea, dense wildernesses etc are hard for armies to cross so countries tend to like having things like that on their borders. Russia talks about this directly: they talk all the time about how they need Ukraine subjugated because otherwise they would be exposed to the west. And of course: their western border is largely flat and featureless due to the geography of the north European plain. That is also where sadly the extent of their madness shines through- the north European plain extends all the way to the west coast of France, is anyone seriously going to let them nab that much territory?!

South America though is the arate of this concept though. Pretty much all of them consist of a handful of dense population nodes, usually on the coast, surrounded by inaccessible geographic armour. Look at Brazil's borders on Google maps, and count how many roads leave it. I can find 1 into Venezuela, on the Far Eastern edge of their border, 1 into Peru (technically 2- I found a road into Peru from a town though that is not itself connected to the rest of the Brazilian road system, it is that deep in the amazon), 1 into French Guiana (by the coast).

This has a couple of implications, none of them moderating. It means that the South American countries are largely not perceived as a threat to each other (nationalists gonna still nationalist of course), while paradoxically making them more vulnerable to US naval power (since these countries can be more easily controlled from one or two large population centres which are almost always on the coast) and to insurgencies & criminals (who can go hide in the mountains and jungles, as well as in the slums of the dense cities where they do exist).

So yes, South America does tend to be a place of wild swings and roundabouts but little progress. :P

Infinitta wrote:

"O Papa é pop, o pop não poupa ninguém"

RMB post written from a Pop_OS! 24 computer (still GNOME tho)

Checking in from a Fedora/GNOME setup!

I’m back for Z-Day... I want to know how to use military-grade weapons to kill zombies—or is that reserved only for those in the top 1% of the military power rankings?

Are you from...

I'll be willing to do border patrol duty this year if needed, as always. :)

Brazil is the largest and most powerful country in South America, and they exert a large influence over all of their many neighbors, so Lula's victory is definitely good news for the entire region. However, the cost of victory for Progressives in these times is watering down their wine in order to keep investors from freaking out... Lula has become much more moderate than he used to be, and it is with some surprise that one reads titles such as "the Left won in Brazil". We're talking about preserving a bare minimum of democracy and certain social rights (in the case of Brazil, Lula has also been able to reduce deforestation in the Amazon rainforest to a large extent). Certainly, it's no small feat, nowadays. Besides, Lula is an old man (81) and the PT hasn't been able to agree on a younger successor: his vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin, is even more moderate, and is 73. Apart from that, Bolsonaro's party still won the majority vote in the general elections, so they are now the largest bloc in the Senate (which means, they can do a lot of harm to Lula's government).

On a side note, Bolsonaro fled Brazil as soon as he could. He crossed the Argentine border in the dead of night and his associates here put him on a plane to the USA, where he has been granted asylum (?) by Trump. There could not be a better proof that all of these little Mussolinis are mere puppets paid by Washington.

Chan Island wrote:

South America does tend to be a place of wild swings and roundabouts but little progress. :P

Progressives in South America, when they had the chance, had little success at reforming the system: they did take advantage of certain favorable conditions for extractive economies and had some success at redistributing income and promoting industrial development, mostly for the internal market under protectionist policies. They fared much better at promoting civil and social rights (like access to public health and education in large cities, LGBT rights, etc.). But they achieved little in terms of environmental protection (save for Lula's stance on the Amazon), food sovereignty, reforming the massively corrupt institutions that undermine democracy (police and armed forces, intelligence departments, judiciary systems, client politics...). Now, under the threat or the reality of a far-right takeover (which can undo all of those former achievements very quickly), Progressives seem even less interested in those issues and more eager to appear reasonable to appease businessmen. It's a trap, really.

Aadonatins wrote:

Checking in from a Fedora/GNOME setup!

I’m back for Z-Day... I want to know how to use military-grade weapons to kill zombies—or is that reserved only for those in the top 1% of the military power rankings?

Are you from...

What in the world is a "Fedora/GNOME setup"?.....Do I wanna know?

Regarding Z-Day.....the problem is they keep coming back. Speaking as a Z-Day veteran I can say it is an experience but the twists are no longer enough to ensure I keep coming back. If I remember I'll set my nation to cure.....

Bit disappointed that nobody replied to Karaa Theocracy story. Unless ppl regarded it is bait!! That is a wild ride for sure that leaves me with plenty of questions? How do you lose your pension while still being alive...pension and enrolling university also is an odd combination. And more or less broke and homeless with a mental disorder. I mean.......I am the last person to give out personal advice here but it sounds like possibly being removed from the Forest map is the least of your problems.

I have had a rough month.....constant cramping in my calves, general heating in my house that broke down and will cost a ton to be fixed permanently, a dispute at my work, financial burdens that are starting to build up and in general just too much to keep up with! But Karaa's struggles are just on another level. More like when Frieden-und freundenland shared their story!! Whatteva happened theeeere!

Ownzone wrote:

What in the world is a "Fedora/GNOME setup"?.....Do I wanna know?

The penguin calls from beyond, beckoning you down the rabbit-hole. Shall you follow him?

A quiet autumn afternoon on the High Table

Fall has settled over the plateau. The fog came in low this morning and burned off by noon, leaving the quartzite ridges above Harrowbright silver in the late sun.

The Canthrise Caravan wrapped up early today. Traders packed away the last of the season's pear must while the stonecarvers swept dust from their terraces. A few families stayed behind at the herb stalls to haggle over grey savin, which is how you know winter is close.

At Lake Meris the morning shrimp baskets came back full. The Canthrise cooks say the water has been unusually still this week.

Ferries on the Loden Run are keeping their usual unhurried time and the DOBIEs are running on schedule. Central Destro has nothing to report.

In the temple gardens the hares have taken to sitting at the cliff edges at dusk. The elders say they're only enjoying the view.

All is calm on the plateau. Have a pleasant evening, Forest.