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Previously Lieutenant Varres crash landed an Aquila Lander carrying a load of gene-seed recovered from Space Marines who sacrificed their lives during the Battle for Macragge. He navigated a field of spore mines to reach the distress beacon and rally a squad of guardsmen to the crash site.

The gene-seed and Lieutenant Varres we're now under the protection of Sergeant Jackson's Guardsmen of the Beinirham 42nd, but it seemed that the fates were conspiring against them. Jackson's auspex indicated that the lander's fusion core was going to overload, and if they could not disarm it quickly, they and their precious cargo would be destroyed in the blast. Gathering clouds of dust on the horizon told them that quicker, deadlier Tyranid organisms now knew they were here.

"Pierre O'Techno, erect the power field," growled Jackson, "Here is where we stand and fight."

Objectives:
*Guard win if they kill 12 Genestealers and remove the fusion core within 6 turns
*Tyranids win if they kill the Guardsmen in 6 turns.
*Draw if the fusion core explodes

Turn 1 Lt Varres fails to disarm the fusion core.
Genestealers destroy a sheid projector. Spawn 3.

Turn 2 guardsmen kill 3 Genestealers.
Guard kill 2 in overwatch. Genestealer kills 2, respawn 5.

Turn 3: Guard kill 1 in melee. Lt Varres disarms the fusion core.
Guard kill 2 in overwatch. Genestealers kill 1, respawn 3.

Turn 4. Guard kill 3 in melee.
Guard kill 1 in overwatch. Genestealers kill 3, respawn 4.11

Guard have killed 12/12 Genestealers needed for a victory.

Continued in Mission 4-42: The Incessant Xenos Tide. page=dispatch/id=1723274

Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Tapion with Triceraton Prime might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Most are bleak.

Short war.
Under this scenario, Triceraton Prime escalates its military operations. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Tapion. The Triceraton air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Tapion, targeting key national infrastructure. Energy supplies and communications networks are cut off. Thousands of civilians die. Despite brave resistance, Pearl Milk Ikspiari falls within days. The government is replaced with a pro-Zanramon puppet regime. The Tapionan leader Milosha Zekromsky is either assassinated or flees, to western Tapion or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. Commander Mozar declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. Thousands of refugees continue to flee west. Tapion joins Quailluna(formerly Quailstar) as a client state of Zanramon, the capital of Triceraton Prime.

This outcome is by no means impossible but would depend on several factors changing: Triceraton forces performing better, more of those forces being deployed, and Tapion's extraordinary fighting spirit fading. Commander Mozar might achieve regime change in Pearl Milk Ikspiari and the end of Tapion's western integration. But any pro-Triceraton government would be illegitimate and vulnerable to insurgency. Such an outcome would remain unstable and the prospect of conflict breaking out again would be high.

Long war
Perhaps more likely is that this develops into a protracted war. Maybe Triceraton forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. Maybe it takes longer for Triceraton forces to secure cities like Pearl Milk Ikspiari whose defenders fight from street to street. A long siege ensues. The fighting has echoes of Triceraton Prime's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Ranma, the capital of Rinne.

And even once Triceraton forces have achieved some presence in Tapion's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Triceraton Prime cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country. Tapion's defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations. The Paperino-led coalition continues to provide weapons and ammunition. And then, perhaps after many years, with maybe new leadership in Zanramon, Triceraton forces eventually leave Tapion, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Night Grinialand in 1989 after a decade fighting insurgents.

Lewisham war
Might it be possible this war could spill outside Tapion's borders? Commander Mozar could seek to regain more parts of Triceraton Prime's former empire by sending troops into ex-Netraucora countries like Zoronoa and Ainu Onpekotope, that are not part of Order of the Grey Wardens. Or there could just be miscalculation and escalation. Commander Mozar could declare Paperino-led coalition arms supplies to Tapionan forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. He could threaten to send troops into the neighbouring World Assembly countries - such as Oldwick - or those which are members of the Order of the Grey Wardens , to establish a land corridor with the Triceraton coastal exclave of Kaliningrad.

This would be hugely dangerous and risk war with the Security Council. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Commander Mozar might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Tapion, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Triceraton leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons. This week, Commander Mozar put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent. But it was a reminder that Triceraton doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

Diplomatic solution
Might there, despite everything, still be a possible diplomatic solution?

"The gunlances are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open,"said World Assembly Secretary General Andorra Gurillo. Certainly dialogue continues. Ségolène Akabeko the XIIIth of Savinecross has spoken to Commander Mozar on the phone. Diplomats say feelers are being stretched out to Zanramon. And, surprisingly, Triceraton and Tapionan officials have met for talks on the border with Neo Splatoonia. They might not have made much progress. But, by agreeing to the talks, Mozar seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire.

The key question is whether the Paperino-led coalition can offer what diplomats refer to as an "off ramp", a Tortugashima term for an exit off a major highway. Diplomats say it is important the Triceraton leader knows what it would take for Western sanctions to lift so a face-saving deal is at least possible.

Consider this scenario. The war goes badly for Triceraton Prime. Sanctions begin to unsettle Zanramon. Opposition grows as body bags return home. Commander Mozar wonders if he has bitten off more than he can chew. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. Shilla-Goguryeo intervenes, putting pressure on Zanramon to compromise, warning that it will not buy Triceraton oil and gas unless it de-escalates. So Commander Mozar starts to look for a way out. Meanwhile, the Tapionan authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. So diplomats engage and a deal is done. Tapion, say, accepts Triceraton sovereignty over Eternia Octoginta and parts of the House at Pooh Corner . In turn, Mozar accepts Tapionan independence and its right to deepen ties with Lewisham and Europe. This may not seem likely. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.

(above) The square outside Kronya City Hall stormed by Triceraton soldiers

Mozar ousted
And what of Commander Mozar himself? When he launched his invasion, he declared: "We are ready for any outcome."

But what if that outcome was him losing power? It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days and such things are now thought about. Professor Sir Laurel Hommboy, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Sebastopol University, Ultra Grandia Sebastia, , wrote this week: "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Zanramon as in Pearl Milk Ikspiari."

(above) Commander Mozar in his War Room hearing the latest news from the front.

Why might he say this? Well, perhaps Commander Mozar pursues a disastrous war. Thousands of Triceraton soldiers die. The economic sanctions bite. Commander Mozar loses popular support. Perhaps there is the threat of popular revolution. He uses Triceraton Prime's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Triceraton Prime's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The WA makes clear that if Mozar goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Triceraton Prime will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. There is a bloody palace coup and Mozar is out. Again, this may not seem likely right now. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Commander Mozar no longer believe he can defend their interests.

Conclusion
These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. It will not return to the status quo ante. Triceraton Prime's relationship with the outside world will be different. European and Lewisham attitudes to security will be transformed. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place.

The Tyranids of Hive McImperium are angry about the destruction of their hive node. They send a hungry force to avenge it. The Guardsmen of the Beinirham 42nd have been reinforced to a full combat patrol.

The Guard win the roll off and will go first.

Turn 1: the Guard kill 4 genestealers and 8 Termagants.
The Tyranids burrow in a Trygon Prime and 10 Termagants. 4 spore mines float down. The Guard are well spread out, limiting spots on the battlefield for the Tyranid reinforcements to deploy. Tyranids kill 5 Guardsmen and wound the Hellhound 2x (9/11).

Turn 2: The Hellhound is boxed in. The Guard kill 8 Termagants, 2 Genestealers, and wound the Trygon Prime 2x (10/12). The company commander leads from the front and uses his hammer, then ducks back behind the front line, out of reach for the Trygon Prime.
Termagants kill 1 Guardsmen in melee. The Trygon fails to wound the Hellhound (9/11).

Turn 3 the Hellhound falls back. The Guard kill 2 Termagants and wound the Trygon Prime 4x (6/12) it is bracketed. (The Trygon Prime shugs off 7 potential wounds from a meltagun but takes a wound from a laspistol and a ladgun.) Brave or foolish Guardsmen charge the Trygon Prime.
The Trygon Prime kills 4 guardsmen and wounds the scout sentinel 1x (5/6).

Turn 4 the guard wound the Trygon Prime 5x (1/6) it is bracketed again. The company commander takes 1 wound from an overcharged plasma pistol getting hot (3/4).
The Trygon Prime wounds the scout sentinel 3x (2/6) and piles into the Hell hound.

Turn 5 The company commander wounds himself again (2/4). The Guard kill the Trygon Prime. It's death throes give the Hellhound 3 wounds (6/11) it is bracketed.

Now all of the Tyranids are dead, except for the spore mines, which don't count towards victory conditions. (Although the guard would have managed to kill all of them too.) 10 guardsmen sacrificed their lives for the Emperor.

The Imperial Guard of the Beinirham 42nd wins!

An Aquila Lander crash lands near a settlement on an otherwise barren desert. A warband of Orks have their eye on it to use for scrap to assemble a new stompa that flies. A unit of Imperial Guard have been dispatched to keep their grubby hands off the wreck and to teach these ravenous mushrooms a lesson for mettling with such a masterpiece of the Omnissiah, even in it's derelict state.

The Orks, with their Boss, Boys, Squigs and Grots, ferociously charged into the lines of guardsmen who rewarded the Xenos for their efforts with steadily aimed volleys. The Orks took down two Scout Sentinels and a Hellhound, and slayed two squads of guardsmen, a special weapons team, two command squads of veterans, and the company commander in charge of elite forces. In all 38 soldiers sacrificed their lives for the Emperor. Their efforts were not in vain. Their comrades rallied to avenge the fallen. What the heavy weapons lacked in yield the humble Lasguns made up for with full broadsides. "First rank, Fire! Second rank, Fire!"

In this manner the Imperial Guard purged the fowl Orks from the battle field. The remaining 43 guardsmen of the Beinirham 42nd secured the crashed Aquila Lander to salvage the parts and lived to fight another day.