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The Imperial States Alliance of The Dominion of the Asmor Federation Hello there |
The Galactic Empire of Arconian Imperium Hello there. |
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The Protectorate of Eternia Octovia *the water is almost boiled, the biscuits🫓, sandwiches🥪, paninis, and cake🧁 are on the tray, the sugar bowl and milk jug are set, and the cups, teapots, tumblers, and mugs are on standby*🫖 Heya, hope you're having a good week. I saw that some former regionmates are currently running a poll about what our favourite is: tea or coffee? so I thought I'd share it here page=poll/p=187814 (above) Triceraton soldier meeting the enemy head-on Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Tapion with Triceraton Prime might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Most are bleak. Short war.
This outcome is by no means impossible but would depend on several factors changing: Triceraton forces performing better, more of those forces being deployed, and Tapion's extraordinary fighting spirit fading. Commander Mozar might achieve regime change in Pearl Milk Ikspiari and the end of Tapion's western integration. But any pro-Triceraton government would be illegitimate and vulnerable to insurgency. Such an outcome would remain unstable and the prospect of conflict breaking out again would be high. Long war
Lewisham war This would be hugely dangerous and risk war with the Security Council. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Commander Mozar might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Tapion, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Triceraton leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons. This week, Commander Mozar put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent. But it was a reminder that Triceraton doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Diplomatic solution "The gunlances are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open,"said World Assembly Secretary General Andorra Gurillo. Certainly dialogue continues. Ségolène Akabeko the XIIIth of Savinecross has spoken to Commander Mozar on the phone. Diplomats say feelers are being stretched out to Zanramon. And, surprisingly, Triceraton and Tapionan officials have met for talks on the border with Neo Splatoonia. They might not have made much progress. But, by agreeing to the talks, Mozar seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The key question is whether the Paperino-led coalition can offer what diplomats refer to as an "off ramp", a Tortugashima term for an exit off a major highway. Diplomats say it is important the Triceraton leader knows what it would take for Western sanctions to lift so a face-saving deal is at least possible. Consider this scenario. The war goes badly for Triceraton Prime. Sanctions begin to unsettle Zanramon. Opposition grows as body bags return home. Commander Mozar wonders if he has bitten off more than he can chew. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. Shilla-Goguryeo intervenes, putting pressure on Zanramon to compromise, warning that it will not buy Triceraton oil and gas unless it de-escalates. So Commander Mozar starts to look for a way out. Meanwhile, the Tapionan authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. So diplomats engage and a deal is done. Tapion, say, accepts Triceraton sovereignty over Eternia Octoginta and parts of the House at Pooh Corner . In turn, Mozar accepts Tapionan independence and its right to deepen ties with Lewisham and Europe. This may not seem likely. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. Mozar ousted But what if that outcome was him losing power? It might seem unthinkable. Yet the world has changed in recent days and such things are now thought about. Professor Sir Laurel Hommboy, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Sebastopol University, Ultra Grandia Sebastia, , wrote this week: "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Zanramon as in Pearl Milk Ikspiari."
Why might he say this? Well, perhaps Commander Mozar pursues a disastrous war. Thousands of Triceraton soldiers die. The economic sanctions bite. Commander Mozar loses popular support. Perhaps there is the threat of popular revolution. He uses Triceraton Prime's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Triceraton Prime's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The WA makes clear that if Mozar goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Triceraton Prime will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations. There is a bloody palace coup and Mozar is out. Again, this may not seem likely right now. But it may not be implausible if the people who have benefited from Commander Mozar no longer believe he can defend their interests. Conclusion |
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Beep beep! Congrats on being the featured region of the day! Anyone for some cake? Arconian Imperium, Featured Hopper, The strange man, A Cardboard Box, and 2 othersA Featured Region, and Triod |
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there's one next to a massive tree a few hundred yards south from here |
Featured? **sends over a bottle of champagne** |
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Good...this region is featured. Congratulations! We will watch your career with great interest. |
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The Potential of A Cardboard Box Oh dearie-me, oh dearie-my. Sidious... |
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Hi there! Since soon a ambassy will exist between our regions, this nation will be placed here, as ambassator of Planet Andarios! Have a nice day! Arconian Imperium and Darrland |
Well it was a pleasure to serve here, but i'm needed, so i will be leaving! Have a nice day! |
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